Top Percent Policies and the Return to Postsecondary Selectivity (2024)

I study the efficacy of test-based meritocracy in college admissions by evaluating the impact of a grade-based "top percent" policy implemented by the University of California. Eligibility in the Local Context (ELC) provided large admission advantages to the top four percent of 2001-2011 graduates from each California high school. Estimates from a regression discontinuity design show that ELC led over 10 percent of barely-eligible applicants from low-opportunity high schools to enroll at selective UC campuses instead of less selective public colleges and universities. Half of those participants came from lower-income families, and their average SAT scores were at the 14th percentile of their UC pers. Despite this mismatch, ELC participants overperformed in their college grades, and more-selective enrollment led participants to graduate earlier and earn higher late-20s wages by over $1,000 per percentage point change in their enrollment institution's graduation rate. These returns appear to exceed the average return to university selectivity among higher-testing students in this setting, implying that university admission policies targeting low-testing students can promote economic mobility without efficiency losses.